Constitution Hill’s Kempton Test Could Tell Us Far More Than Whether He Can Win on the Flat
For all the fascination surrounding Constitution Hill’s unexpected Flat career, there comes a point when curiosity has to give way to evidence, and Saturday’s September Stakes at Kempton looks very much like that moment.
The first two victories told us that Nicky Henderson had not embarked upon some fanciful late-career adventure with his former champion hurdler. Constitution Hill retains plenty of ability, he is comfortable enough operating without an obstacle in front of him and, perhaps most importantly, he still appears to possess the appetite for competition that made him such an extraordinary sight at his peak over hurdles.
What those races did not establish was exactly where he belongs on the Flat.
Kempton might.
This is no carefully selected stepping stone populated by horses against whom Constitution Hill’s reputation will do half the work before the gates open. Among the possible opposition are a Coronation Cup winner in Bay City Roller, a Group One winner in Tornado Alert and the talented Gethin, while Pride Of Arras, Dubai Future and Small Fry give the race the appearance of a genuine Group Three rather than a stage constructed around its most famous participant.
That distinction matters because, fascinating though this Flat campaign has been, Constitution Hill has reached the stage where he needs opposition capable of putting some numbers against the excitement.
Saturday should provide it.
Bay City Roller changes the equation
There is one horse in particular who gives the September Stakes considerably greater significance.
Bay City Roller is not heading to Kempton because anybody wants to discover whether he is a proper Flat horse. We already know he is.
George Scott’s Coronation Cup winner is being prepared for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which gives us the sort of comparison Constitution Hill has not previously encountered during this new chapter of his career.
It would be dangerous to turn one September Group Three into some definitive assessment of Arc form. Horses arrive with different objectives, fitness levels and campaigns ahead of them, while Kempton’s Polytrack presents a very different examination from ParisLongchamp.
Nevertheless, if Constitution Hill can travel alongside a horse of Bay City Roller’s standing and still be involved when the race becomes serious, we will have learned something.
If he beats him, we will have learned considerably more.
Gethin adds another useful layer. His Eclipse performance was disappointing, but connections have not abandoned their Arc ambitions and Owen Burrows believes the horse is capable of much better than he showed at Sandown. Tornado Alert brings Group One credentials of his own.
For the first time in Constitution Hill’s Flat career, therefore, there are enough established reference points around him to begin making meaningful comparisons.
That is what makes Saturday compelling.
Billy Loughnane inherits one of racing’s more unusual rides
There is also something rather intriguing about the identity of the man expected to be sitting on Constitution Hill.
Billy Loughnane will become the third major Flat jockey associated with the horse during this campaign after Oisin Murphy and Ryan Moore, and Henderson could hardly have found a more interesting replacement.
Loughnane’s rise has been rapid, but the days when he could be described merely as an exciting young jockey have gone. He is operating at the sharp end of the British championship and increasingly looks entirely at home when the better opportunities arrive.
Even so, Constitution Hill is not an ordinary spare ride.
There will be an enormous amount of attention on how the horse travels, where Loughnane positions him and, particularly, what happens when the pace begins to increase.
That last part interests me most.
One of the dangers when assessing a great jumper on the Flat is assuming that class simply transfers intact from one discipline to another. It doesn’t. The rhythm is different, tactical speed matters differently and the ability to quicken against genuine Flat horses cannot be inferred from what somebody once did approaching the second-last at Cheltenham.
Constitution Hill has to demonstrate it.
The encouraging part is that he has already demonstrated rather more adaptability than many would have expected.
Now we discover how far it extends.
There is no disgrace if Kempton finds him out
This is perhaps the point most easily lost whenever an exceptional horse attempts something unusual.
Constitution Hill does not need to win on Saturday for this entire experiment to have been worthwhile.
If Bay City Roller or another established Flat performer simply proves too good, it does not rewrite anything Constitution Hill achieved over hurdles. Nor would it mean Henderson was wrong to explore another avenue with a horse who still wanted to race.
Quite the opposite.
Racing can sometimes become strangely conservative with its stars. Once a horse has established a reputation, there is an understandable temptation to protect it, and campaigns can consequently become exercises in avoiding defeat rather than discovering ability.
There is little of that about what is happening here.
At nine years old, Constitution Hill is being asked a completely new question.
Saturday’s version happens to be considerably harder than the previous two.
Good.
We might finally get an interesting answer.
John Mills’ View
I have enjoyed watching the Constitution Hill Flat experiment develop, but Saturday is the first time I think we can genuinely begin judging what we have rather than simply admiring the novelty of it.
Winning two Flat races was enough to prove that the idea had substance. Taking on horses such as Bay City Roller, Gethin and Tornado Alert is something else altogether, because these are the sort of horses that give us a proper reference point.
I also think we should be careful about making victory the only acceptable outcome. Constitution Hill is nine years old and has spent most of his career being trained as a hurdler. If he can hold his own in this company, that in itself would be some achievement.
But if he wins?
Then the conversation becomes considerably more interesting, because at that point we aren’t really talking about a former champion hurdler having a successful experiment on the Flat.
We are talking about a Group-class Flat horse.
Saturday should tell us which one he is.
John Mills
Pro Racing Edge
