Thesecretadversary Could Seize a Group 1 Opportunity After Marois Picture Changes
The loss of one top-class horse can alter the complexion of a major race. Lose two and connections who had been looking elsewhere are entitled to reconsider everything.
That is the position facing Fozzy Stack with Thesecretadversary, whose intended route towards the City of York Stakes is no longer quite as certain following the retirement of Bow Echo and the setback suffered by Gstaad. Sunday’s €1 million Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville had effectively been taken off the table, but a race that looked considerably more daunting only a few days ago now demands another look.
Stack has done exactly that. Thesecretadversary remained among the 12 horses at Wednesday’s forfeit stage and, with declarations approaching, the trainer described the decision between Deauville and York as essentially 50-50.
There is good reason for the hesitation because this is not simply a case of spotting a weaker Group 1 and jumping at it. Thesecretadversary has spent much of this season showing connections something important about the type of horse he has become.
Seven Furlongs Changed His Season
His two Guineas attempts never really allowed him to show his hand. He pulled too hard at Newmarket and then met trouble on the rail at the Curragh, leaving legitimate questions about whether the mile was the problem or whether circumstances had prevented him from running his race.
The answer appeared to come when he dropped to seven furlongs.
At Royal Ascot he took the Jersey Stakes, and the improvement continued when he travelled to Deauville for the Prix Jean Prat. Christophe Soumillon allowed him to race positively from the front and Thesecretadversary responded with his first Group 1 success, seeing off a field that included established Classic form.
Those two performances naturally pointed Stack towards York. The City of York Stakes, promoted to Group 1 status last year, offered another seven-furlong examination and therefore appeared an obvious opportunity to build on what had already worked.
Then the landscape changed.
Bow Echo’s sudden retirement removed the unbeaten 2,000 Guineas, St James’s Palace and Sussex Stakes winner from Sunday’s Marois, while Gstaad’s setback took another major name out of the equation. Bow Echo’s absence is particularly significant given that connections had been considering Deauville before injury brought his unbeaten six-race career to an abrupt end.
Suddenly, the race Stack had decided against no longer looks quite the same race.
The Mile Is the Question
There is still a perfectly respectable argument for sticking to the original plan.
Thesecretadversary has looked a better horse since returning to seven furlongs, and when a horse produces consecutive career-defining performances over the same distance, there is little obvious reason to interfere with the formula.
York would also offer the chance to contest a Group 1 without asking a new stamina question.
Deauville asks him to return to a mile.
Yet it would be dangerous to conclude from the Guineas alone that he cannot be effective over the trip. Neither race provided a straightforward examination, and he is a more accomplished racehorse now than he was during the spring. His increasingly effective front-running style may also give connections more control over how the mile is tackled.
There is another consideration that matters with horses operating at this level: Group 1 opportunities are rarely static.
Connections spend months making plans around races that can change dramatically within 48 hours. When two of the strongest potential opponents disappear, it is sensible to reconsider rather than remain committed to a programme simply because it was written down first.
Rayif Has His Own Case to Make
This should not be mistaken for a weak Prix Jacques le Marois.
French 2,000 Guineas winner Rayif remains among the potential opposition and goes into the weekend after pleasing Francis Graffard and jockey Mickael Barzalona in his work. His fifth behind Thesecretadversary in the Jean Prat was below expectations, but connections believe the circumstances of that seven-furlong contest did not play to his strengths.
There are other credible contenders among the remaining entries, including Japanese interest and a Ballydoyle presence, so Stack will hardly be looking at an open goal.
What has changed is the balance between risk and reward.
A week ago, taking Thesecretadversary away from a seven-furlong Group 1 at York to challenge Bow Echo and Gstaad over a mile in France would have required considerable justification. With those two removed, the calculation is different.
That is why the decision deserves more thought than simply asking which race looks easiest.
York Has Its Own Group 1 Story Building
Whatever Stack decides, next week’s Ebor Festival is hardly short of intrigue.
Juddmonte is preparing a particularly strong team, with Item heading towards a Juddmonte International in which Ombudsman and Constitution River will understandably dominate much of the discussion.
Item should not be treated as an afterthought. His Derby effort on unsuitable ground sits awkwardly among an otherwise progressive record, while his performances over York’s ten furlongs have established that he belongs in the conversation. Barry Mahon readily accepts the size of the task, but connections believe there is still improvement to come.
Then there is Kalpana, who heads for the Yorkshire Oaks following her career-best success in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.
Her presence gives the Thursday feature considerably greater weight, and the decision to run is interesting in itself. Rather than protecting her until the autumn, Juddmonte is prepared to race while she is thriving, with longer-term targets including the Arc still ahead.
It is an old-fashioned approach in the best sense: a high-class horse is well, there is a suitable Group 1 available, so she runs.
John Mills’ View
I can understand why Stack is reconsidering Deauville, although I would not make the decision purely because Bow Echo and Gstaad have disappeared.
The more interesting question is whether Thesecretadversary’s improvement has come because seven furlongs is genuinely his optimum distance, or because he has simply become a better, more mature racehorse as the season has developed.
If Stack believes it is the latter, the Marois is difficult to ignore.
These situations do not come along very often. A €1 million Group 1 that appeared exceptionally difficult can change almost overnight, and Thesecretadversary has already proved at Deauville that he belongs at the highest level.
If there remains a serious doubt about the mile, York is a perfectly good place to go. But if connections believe he will see it out, I would be tempted to take the opportunity while it exists.
Racing programmes can be planned months in advance. The best decisions, however, are sometimes the ones made when those plans suddenly change.
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